US October UMich prelim consumer sentiment 68.9 vs 70.8 expected

• The final reading for September was 70.1
• Current conditions 62.7 vs. 64.3 expected (previous 63.3)
• Expectations: 72.9 vs. 75.0 expected (previous 74.4)
• One-year inflation: 2.9% vs. 2.7% previously
• 5-year inflation 3.0% vs. 3.1% previously

I do not attach much importance to this report because it is highly politicized and we are at the peak of the political cycle.

Here is the comment in the poll:

Consumer sentiment fell by a meager 1.2 points in October, within error, after two straight months of gains. Sentiment is currently 8% stronger than a year ago and about 40% above the low reached in June 2022. While inflation expectations have fallen significantly since then, consumers continue to express frustration with rising prices. However, long-term business conditions rose to their highest reading in six months, while current and projected personal financial conditions eased slightly. Despite widespread news coverage about the Middle East and Ukraine, few consumers linked these developments to the economy. Concerns about these conflicts rose this month but were relatively rare, with less than 5% of consumers casually mentioning them. As the next election approaches, some consumers appear to be withholding judgment about the long-term path of the economy.

This chart speaks to those comments:

This article was written by Adam Paton at www.forexlive.com.