- Prelim was 69.0
- The previous was 67.9
- Current conditions 63.3 vs preliminary 62.9 (previous 61.3)
- Expectations 74.4 vs preliminary 73.0 (previous 72.1)
- One-year inflation: 2.7% vs. 2.7% initial
- 5-year inflation 3.1% vs 3.1% initial
Final revisions are rarely a market driver, but the chart shows how different this picture is from consumer confidence, which is close to collapse.
A big part of the difference is that the UMich poll is influenced by a huge amount of partisanship.
Comments in the survey also highlight politics:
Consumer sentiment continued to rise early in the month, eventually rising more than 3% above August. This increase was seen across all educational categories and political affiliations. Furthermore, all five components of the index rose, led by a 6% increase in one-year business expectations. The Expectations Index is now 13% higher than last year and reflects greater optimism among a broad cross-section of the population. While sentiment remains below its historical average due in part to frustration over rising prices, consumers are keenly aware that inflation has continued to slow. Sentiment appears to be gaining some momentum as consumers’ expectations about the economy improve. At the same time, many consumers continue to report that their expectations hinge on the results of the upcoming election. Compared to August, consumers across political parties increasingly expect a Harris presidency, although about two-thirds of Republicans still expect Trump to win.
Someone will be disappointed after November.
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