- Flash estimate was 48.6
- Prior was 50.0
- New orders fell into contraction
- Goods
producers noted that, although only marginal, the decrease
in new sales was linked to weak client demand, economic
uncertainty and customers continuing to run down stock
levels - Input costs rose at a ‘notably’ slower pace
- Employment fell for the second successive
month
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
Global Market Intelligence, said:
“US manufacturers reported yet another tough month in
November. Output barely rose as inflows of new work showed
a renewed decline, hinting at little – if any – contribution to
fourth quarter GDP from the goods-producing sector.
“Orders have in fact risen in only three of the past 18 months,
reflecting a prolonged period of subdued post-pandemic
demand, in turn linked to consumers switching their spending
to services such as travel and recreation, and business
customers reducing excess inventories which had been
accumulated during the supply concerns of the pandemic.
“Encouragingly, there are some signs of the inventory cycle
starting to turn, with producers of intermediate goods (inputs
supplied to other firms) now reporting modest order book
growth.
“US producers nevertheless continue to focus on cost cutting
by trimming headcounts, and have now taken the knife to
payroll numbers for two consecutive months. Barring the
early months of the pandemic, the survey has not seen such a
back-to-back monthly fall in factory employment since 2009.
“The decline in employment could feed through to weaker
consumer spending, but will also reduce wage bargaining
power.
“Lower wage pressures, combined with a marked cooling of
raw material input cost inflation, have already fed through to
a lowering of average factory selling price inflation for goods
to a rate below the average seen in the decade prior to the
pandemic, the rate of increase dipping again in November
to help further lower consumer price inflation in the months
ahead.”
The ISM manufacturing survey is due at the top of the hour. The euro and pound are near the lows of the day on the heels of this report, though that’s flows not a result of this report.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
