US 10 year yield is above 200 day MA
The US yields are coming off the boil that had the 10 year get within 2 basis points of the 2024 high yield of 4.196%. The high yield today reached 4.177% and is currently at 4.147%.
Although off the boil, the 10 year yield did move back above the 200 day moving average today at 4.119%. It would take a move below that moving average to shift the short-term/intermediate bias back to the downside.
On the top side, a break of the 4.196% would have traders targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high. That level comes in a 4.256%. The 100-day moving average (blue line in the chart) is another target at 4.344%
This week, the U.S. Treasury will option off 3, 10, and 30 year coupon issues starting with the 3-year tomorrow at 1 PM ($54B). That will be followed by $42 billion over 10-year notes on Wednesday and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday. The yields have backed up into the auction helped by the stronger economic news and the shift toward a stable Fed until May/June. The rubber will meet the road when the world gets to bid on 3 different tenors along the yield curve.
The 3 year yield is currently at 4.253%, and the 30-year yield is at 4.339%
