The US dollar fell against the Canadian dollar after a weaker than expected US jobs report. That downward movement stopped against the old ceiling area between 1.36049 and 1.36154. The price started to bounce back to the upside.
The move to the upside was able to expand back above the 50% midpoint of the April trading range at 1.3661. This disappointed sellers and led to further upward momentum. The move higher brought the price back towards its 200 hour moving average at 1.36914. This 200 hour moving average has held up against resistance, marking the level as the upper technical ceiling – at least for now.
So, overall support remains near 1.3605 – 1.36154. Midpoint resistance near the 50% retracement at 1.36617 did not hold, but resistance did hold against the 200 hourly moving average at 1.36914.
If sellers want to regain control, they must get below the 50% retracement. If this is done, a rotation through the 200-bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.3644 will open the door to a retest of the old ceiling/new floor (near 1.3610).
Conversely, if buyers want to retain control, they must stay above the midpoint level. The 200 hourly moving average needs to be broken and remain broken to increase this bullish bias.
