US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
expected at the last meeting. - The macroeconomic projections were revised higher
as the economy showed much stronger resilience than expected and the Dot Plot
showed that the majority of members still expects another rate hike by the end
of the year with less rate cuts in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell
reaffirmed their data dependency but added that they will proceed carefully. - The latest US Core PCE
came
in line with expectations with disinflation continuing steady. - The labour market remains
fairly solid as seen last week with another strong beat in Jobless Claims and the NFP report. - The ISM Manufacturing PMI beat
expectations while the ISM Services PMI came in
line with forecasts in another sign that the US economy remains resilient. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.
Canada:
- The BoC left interest rates at 5.00% as expected but remains prepared to
raise rates further if needed. - BoC Governor Macklem delivered a hawkish speech which points to another rate hike
if the data remains strong into the next policy meeting. - The Canadian underlying inflation
data has been beating expectations month after month with another beat across the board recently. - On the labour market side, the recent
report beat expectations and showed another uptick in wage growth, which is something that Governor
Macklem said the BoC is watching carefully. - The market doesn’t expect the BoC to
hike at the upcoming meeting with odds hovering around 40%, but the central
bank is not afraid to deliver surprising decisions.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
USDCAD Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the USDCAD pair
recently broke above a key resistance level
around 1.3668, but sold off soon after helped by a strong Canadian jobs report
that raised the chances of another rate hike from the BoC on October 25. We can
notice also that the last leg higher diverged with the
MACD which is
generally a sign of weakening momentum often followed by pullbacks or
reversals. In this case, we might see the price falling into the trendline before
finding strong buyers.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
USDCAD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that as soon as the
price broke through the strong support around the 1.3660 level, the bearish
momentum intensified as more sellers piled in to target the upward trendline
around the 1.35 handle. We have another support zone around the 1.3550 level
where we can find the previous swing level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level
for confluence. That’s
where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the zone to
target a new high.
USDCAD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
USDCAD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see that we
have a minor downward trendline that coupled with the red 21 moving average is
likely to act as resistance for the current downtrend. In fact, we can expect
the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position
for a drop into the 1.35 handle. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to
see the price breaking above the trendline to pile in and target a new high.
Upcoming Events
This week the market is likely to focus on the CPI
report as that’s what might change the expectations around the next FOMC rate
decision. Today, we will see the US PPI data and later in the day the FOMC
Meeting Minutes. Tomorrow, it will be the time for the US CPI report, and at
the same time we will also get the latest Jobless Claims figures. On Friday we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
