Weekly Market Outlook (19-23 February)

UPCOMING EVENTS:

• Monday:
  US/Canada
  Holiday, Canada PPI.
• Tuesday:
  RBA
  Meeting Minutes, PBoC LPR, Canada CPI, New Zealand PPI.
• Wednesday:
  Australia
  Wage data, FOMC Meeting Minutes.
• Thursday:
  Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US
  Flash PMIs, ECB Minutes, Canada Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims, New
  Zealand Retail Sales.
• Friday:
  Japan
  Holiday, German IFO.

Tuesday

The PBoC is expected to keep the LPR rates
unchanged at 3.45% for the 1-year and 4.20% for the 5-year. The MLF decision is
generally a precursor for the LPR change and the PBoC decided to keep the rate
unchanged at 2.50% on Sunday. The central bank surprised
recently by cutting the RRR by 50bps vs. 25 bps expected and sparked a rally in
the stock market (although most of the gains were
erased in the following weeks). There’s a very low chance of a cut at this
point and if the market was positioned for such an outcome, then we might see the disappointment already on Monday.

The Canadian CPI Y/Y is expected at 3.2%
vs. 3.4% while the M/M measure is seen at 0.4% vs. -0.3% prior. The BoC is
focused on the underlying inflation measures (common, median and trimmed mean)
and although the rates are getting closer to the 1-3% target range, the central
bank wants to see more progress both on inflation and wage growth fronts.
As a reminder, the last
inflation report went in the opposite
direction with the underlying figures reaccelerating.

Wednesday

The Australian Q4 Wage Growth Y/Y is
expected at 4.1% vs. 4.0% prior, while the Q/Q measure is seen at 0.9% vs. 1.3%
prior. The RBA is expecting wage growth to ease as the labour market comes
into better balance. The last week’s ugly labour
market report is indeed pointing into
that direction.

Thursday

Thursday will be the Flash PMIs day for
many major economies, but the market will likely focus on the US ones:

• Eurozone Manufacturing
  PMI 47.1 vs. 46.6 prior.
• Eurozone Services PMI
  48.7 vs. 48.4 prior.
• UK Manufacturing PMI 47.1
  vs. 47.0 prior.
• UK Services PMI 54.4 vs.
  54.3 prior.
• US Manufacturing PMI 50.2
  vs. 50.7 prior.
• US Services PMI 52.0 vs.
  52.5 prior.

The US Jobless Claims continue to be one
of the most important releases every week as it’s a timelier indicator on the
state of the labour market. Initial Claims keep on hovering around cycle
lows, while Continuing Claims remain firm around cycle highs. This week the
consensus sees Initial Claims at 217K vs. 212K prior,
while there’s no consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing
although the last week’s data showed an increase to 1895K vs. 1865K prior.