BoJ Noguchi reiterated the central bank’s focus on
wage growth to reach their 2% target sustainably with no policy change in
sight:
- It’s true the impact
of elevated global inflation is reaching Japan’s economy with consumer
inflation exceeding the BoJ’s 2% target since the spring of 2022. - But the rise (in
inflation) is mostly due to cost-push factors amid higher import prices. - To achieve our 2% inflation
target, we must see price rises backed by sustained wage increases. - While annual spring
wage negotiations this year achieved wage hikes unseen in 30 years, we’ve
only just reached a stage where the possibility of achieving our target
has come into sight.
The Switzerland November CPI missed expectations with
both the measures comfortably in the SNB’s 0-2% target range:
- CPI Y/Y 1.4% vs.
1.7% expected and 1.7% prior. - CPI M/M -0.2% vs.
-0.1% expected and 0.1% prior. - Core CPI Y/Y 1.4% vs.
1.5% prior.
ECB’s de Guindos (neutral – voter) maintained his
neutral stance as the central bank keeps a “wait and see” approach:
- Recent inflation
data is good news. - It’s been a
‘positive surprise’. - But it is too early
to declare victory. - Increase in wages
can still have an impact on inflation. - Monetary policy
stance will be data dependent.
The Tokyo CPI for
November fell further:
- CPI
Y/Y 2.6% vs. 3.3% prior. - Core
CPI Y/Y 2.3% vs. 2.4% expected and 2.7% prior. - Core-Core
CPI Y/Y 2.7% vs. 2.7% prior.
The Chinese Caixin Services
PMI for November beat expectations:
- Caixin Services PMI
51.5 vs. 50.8 expected and 50.4 prior.
Key
points from the report:
- Business activity
and new orders increase at quickest rates in three months. - Confidence around
the year-ahead improves. - Inflationary pressures weaken.
The RBA left the cash
rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected with a slightly dovish tone:
- Whether further
tightening of monetary policy is required to ensure that inflation returns
to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the
evolving assessment of risks. - Board remains
resolute in its determination to return inflation to target. - The limited
information received on the domestic economy since the November meeting
has been broadly in line with expectations. - Outlook for
household consumption also remains uncertain. - The monthly CPI
indicator for October suggested that inflation is continuing to moderate,
driven by the goods sector; the inflation update did not, however, provide
much more information on services inflation. - Measures of
inflation expectations remain consistent with the inflation target. - Conditions in the
labour market also continued to ease gradually, although they remain tight. - Domestically, there
are uncertainties regarding the lags in the effect of monetary policy. - Higher interest
rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between
aggregate supply and demand in the economy. - Holding the cash
rate steady at this meeting will allow time to assess the impact of the
increases in interest rates on demand, inflation and the labour market.
The Eurozone PPI
for October came in line with expectations:
- PPI Y/Y -9.4% vs.
-9.5% expected and -12.4% prior. - PPI M/M 0.2% vs.
0.2% expected and 0.5% prior.
ECB’s Schnabel
(hawk – voter) changed her tone to a more neutral stance after the latest
inflation report:
- Further rate hikes
“rather unlikely” after latest inflation data. - Inflation developments
are encouraging, fall in core prices remarkable. - Must be careful
about guiding policy for many months out. - Current level of
restriction is sufficient, has increased confidence 2% target will be met
in 2025. - But must not declare
victory prematurely. - Inflation is on the
right track, but more progress is needed. - No prolonged
recession is seen. - Data suggests
economy may be bottoming out.
The US ISM
Services PMI for November beat expectations:
- ISM Services PMI
52.7 vs. 52.0 expected and 51.8 prior. - Employment index 50.7 vs. 50.2 prior.
- New orders index
55.5 vs. 55.5 prior. - Prices paid index
58.3 vs. 58.6 prior. - New export orders
53.6 vs. 48.8 prior. - Imports 53.7 vs. 60.0 prior.
The US Job Openings for
October missed expectations by a big margin with a negative revision to the
prior reading:
- Job Openings 8.733M
vs. 9.300M expected and 9.350M prior (revised from 9.553M). - Hires 3.7% vs. 3.7% prior.
- Separations rate 3.6% vs. 3.6% prior.
- Quits 2.3% vs. 2.3%
prior.
The Australian Q3 GDP
missed expectations:
- GDP Q/Q 0.2% vs.
0.4% expected and 0.4% prior. - GDP Y/Y 2.1% vs.
1.8% expected and 2.1% prior.
BoJ’s Himino just echoed
the other members’ comments with the usual focus on wage growth:
- BoJ will patiently
maintain easy policy until sustained, stable achievement of price target
is in sight. - Japan’s financial
system is likely resilient enough to weather stress from transition to
higher interest rates.
- If we do not get the
timing exit procedures wrong, the impact of a positive wage-inflation
cycle will likely benefit wide range of households, companies.
- Must make
appropriate decision on exit timing, procedure by scrutinising wage,
inflation developments. - BoJ must achieve
situation where inflation slows ahead, but not too much.
- Japan is seeing
steadily changes in price, wage behaviour.
- Solid progress is
observed in the transformation of firms’ wage- and price-setting
behaviour. - Price rises
beginning to affect wages. - Pass-through from
wages to inflation is also returning somewhat. - Without virtuous
cycle between wages and prices, Japan will most likely revert to the
deflationary state in the past.
- When Japan returns
to an economy with positive interest rate, that could improve households’
balance as a whole. - If inflation
expectations have heightened, that would mean impact of rise in real
interest rate could be smaller than that of nominal rate.
The Eurozone
Retail Sales for October missed expectations:
- Retail
Sales M/M 0.1% vs. 0.2% expected and -0.1% prior (revised from -0.3%). - Retail
Sales Y/Y -1.2% vs. -1.1% expected and -2.9% prior.
BoE’s Bailey
(neutral – voter) reaffirmed the central bank’s “wait and see” approach:
- Outlook for
inflation is uncertain. - Rates likely to need
to remain around current levels. - We remain vigilant
to financial stability risks that might arise.
ECB’s Kazimir
(hawk – voter) pushed back against markets’ rate cuts expectations:
- Further
rate hike is unlikely to be needed but market bets for Q1 rate cut are science
fiction.
The US ADP missed
expectations:
- ADP 103K vs. 130K
expected and 106K prior (revised from 113K).
Details:
- Small (less than 50
employees) 6K vs. 19K prior. - Medium firms (500 –
499) 68K vs. 78K prior. - Large (greater than
499 employees) 33K vs. 18K prior.
Changes in pay:
- Job stayers 5.6% vs.
5.7% prior – slowest since September 2021. - Job changers 8.3% vs. 8.4% prior.
The BoC left
interest rates unchanged at 5.00% as expected:
- Statement repeats
that BoC “is prepared to raise the policy rate further if
needed”. - Data “suggest
the economy is no longer in excess demand”. - BoC saw
“further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving
price pressures”. - The slowdown in the
economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods
and services prices. - Governing Council
wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation. - The global economy continues
to slow, and inflation has eased further. - US growth has been
stronger than expected but is likely to weaken in the months ahead. - Growth in the euro
area has weakened. - Oil prices are about
$10-per-barrel lower than was assumed in the October MPR. - The US dollar has
weakened against most currencies, including Canada’s. - Higher interest
rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two
quarters was close to zero. - The labour market
continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth.
ECB’s Villeroy
(neutral – voter) reaffirmed that the central bank is done with rate hikes and
the next step is rate cuts in 2024:
- Disinflation is
happening more quickly than we thought. - This is why, barring
any shocks, there will not be any new rise in rates. The question of a
rate cut could arise in 2024, but not right now.
BoJ Governor Ueda didn’t
say anything explicitly about an exit from the current easy policy BUT you can
clearly read between the lines that they are considering rate hikes:
- Japan’s economy to
continue recovering moderately, supported mainly by accommodative
financial conditions and effects of economic stimulus measures. - Uncertainty over
Japan’s economy extremely high. - Closely watching the
impact of financial, forex markets on the Japanese economy, prices.
- Will patiently
continue monetary easing under YCC to support economic activity, cycle of
wage growth.
- We have not yet
reached a situation in which we can achieve price target sustainably and
stably and with sufficient certainty.
- Challenging situation remains.
- It’ll become even
more challenging towards the end of this year and into early 2024.
- BoJ has not made
decision on which interest rate to target once we end negative interest
rate policy. - Options include
raising rate applied to financial institutions’ reserves at BoJ, or revert
to policy targeting overnight call rate.
- Don’t have any
specific idea in mind on how much we will raise rates once we end negative
rate policy.
- Whether to keep
interest rate at zero or move it up to 0.1%, and at what pace short-term
rates will be hiked after ending negative rate policy, will depend on
economic and financial developments at the time. - Achieving 2% trend
inflation can be defined as a state where economy, void of new shocks, can
see inflation sustained around 2% and wage growth somewhat above that
level. - Would be difficult
to choose which monetary policy tools to mobilise when exit from stimulus
draws near. - BoJ to work closely
with govt while monitoring currency, financial market moves. - Service spending
increasing moderately as a trend. - What’s important
from here is for wages to keep rising and underpin consumption.
The Switzerland
Unemployment Rate for November ticked higher to 2.1% vs. 2.0% prior, while the
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained unchanged at 2.1% vs. 2.2%
expected.
The US Challenger
Job Cuts for November increased to 45.51K vs. 36.84K prior. Compared to the
same month last year, job cuts are down by roughly 41% but then again there was
an exceptional number of tech layoffs in November of 2022. The 45.51K layoffs
last month brings the year-to-date total to 686,860 and that’s roughly a 115%
increase to the year-to-date total for last year through to November.
The US Jobless
Claims beat expectations across the board:
- Initial Claims 220K
vs. 222K expected and 219K prior (revised from 218K). - Continuing Claims
1861K vs. 1910K expected and 1925K prior (revised from 1927K).
BoC’s Gravelle
acknowledged the progress on inflation:
- Gravelle noted that
housing imbalances have serious consequences for shelter price inflation,
contributing 1.8 percentage points to the total October inflation rate of
3.1%. - Emphasized the need
for Canada to have more homes and a housing supply that is more responsive
to increases in demand. - Pointed out that a
jump in demographic demand, coupled with existing structural supply
issues, could explain why rent inflation continues to climb. - Stressed the
importance of all levels of government working together on housing
policies to boost supply. - Urged the reduction
of barriers to adding capacity and ensuring market flexibility to meet
future changes in housing demand. - Warned that without
more house building, inflationary pressures in the shelter sector could
continue to build. - Highlighted that
rent inflation reached a 40-year high in October, with housing supply not
keeping pace with recent increases in immigration. - Reported that
housing activity grew 8.3% in Q3 but remains far below the level needed to
meet growing housing needs. - Commented that
recent increases in immigration have boosted near-term consumption but
haven’t significantly affected inflation. - Noted that the
economy is now roughly in balance, with a focus on monitoring inflation
expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. - Stressed the
importance of indicators in assessing whether inflation is on a sustained
path to the 2% target. - Said that the market
has been relatively right on their previous two or three decisions, so it
seems like it’s taking in the data in the same way they are.
The Japanese Average Cash Earnings increased in
October on a year-over-year basis marking the 22nd consecutive month
of rising wages:
- Average Cash
Earnings Y/Y 1.5% vs. 0.6% prior (revised from 1.2%). - Real wages Y/Y -2.3%.
The US NFP report beat expectations across the board
by a big margin:
- NFP 199K vs. 180K
expected and 150K prior. - Two-month net
revision -35K vs -101K prior. - Unemployment rate 3.7%
vs. 3.9% expected and 3.9% prior. - Participation rate 62.8% vs. 62.7% prior.
- U6 underemployment
rate 7.0% vs. 7.2% prior. - Average hourly
earnings M/M 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected and 0.2% prior. - Average hourly
earnings Y/Y 4.0% vs. 4.1% expected and 4.0% prior (revised from 4.1%). - Average weekly hours
34.4 vs. 34.3 expected and 34.3 prior. - Change in private
payrolls 150K vs. 153K expected. - Change in
manufacturing payrolls 28K vs. 30K expected. - Household survey 747K
vs. -348K prior. - Birth-death
adjustment 4K vs. 412K prior.
The highlights for next week will be:
- Tuesday: Japan PPI, UK Labour Market report, NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index, US CPI. - Wednesday: UK GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production, US PPI, FOMC
Policy Decision, New Zealand GDP. - Thursday: Australia Labour Market report, SNB Policy Decision,
BoE Policy Decision, ECB Policy Decision, US Retail Sales, US Jobless Claims,
New Zealand Manufacturing PMI. - Friday: Australia/Japan/Eurozone/UK/US Flash PMIs, China
Industrial Production and Retail Sales, Eurozone Wage data, US Industrial
Production, PBoC MLF.
That’s all folks. Have a nice weekend!