While the markets are awaiting the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on January 29, Crypto investors find themselves in a critical turn. In the wake of the first executive ever by US President Donald Trump and yesterday, the macroeconomic economy is destroyed in this field.
Crypto Market Fomc Preview
BYZANTINE GENERAL (byzgeneral) It was identified The unification range ranges between 90,682 dollars and 108,388 dollars for Bitcoin. He expects a limited movement before the FOMC meeting, citing three possible scenarios of how the market responds as soon as the Federal Reserve concludes its discussions: “As I said in my topic yesterday, we are really dealing between this range (90,682 dollars – 108,388 dollars). I expect to happen Anything until Wednes
Participants in the Crypto market often explain an incentive position-which indicates discounts in interest rates, or a temporary stop-budging assets of risks, including Bitcoin and Crypto. The sudden tilt of Duvish can be the catalyst for breaking the current trading scope, according to Bezantin General. On the other hand, neutral or tense expectations may mean a long period of sides price movement.
In their evaluation, the banking giant I put The wider macroeconomic context that can affect the decision of the Federal Reserve and its expectations for 2025. According to NG: “The specified federal reserve for the extended stop. Pressing prints are more insulting to justify more policy.
In December, FOMC witnessed a reduction in the average of 25 basis points, but the subsequent suspension suggested a slower and more gradual pathway to reduce the year 2025, and perhaps a total of 50 bits per year only. Ji notes that strong economic performance and continuous inflation pressures provide a lower incentive to reduce federal reserve rates quickly. The bank also sheds light on the possibility of a remaining list that the Fed Bank may adopt a more honest tone than it has publicly recognized:
“In fact, the risks are that the federal reserve is actually more honest than they have shown … However, President Trump has just acknowledged his re -election and that his political plans are flagrantly different from President Joe Biden, and Jay Powell approved the President of the Federal Reserve that Some felt policy needed to integrate potential political transformations in December 2024.
GI’s economists also notice that the market participants do not significantly expect any change in politics on January 29, while the bank itself expected a reduction in the march prices previously – an event that now sees it is increasingly unlikely: “This does not mean any A change in monetary policy on January 29 and makes it unlikely to be the previous invitation to reduce the price of the march – currently only 6 bits per hour of a 25 -point step per hour.
However, Ji still predicts three price cuts for 2025, depending on the gradual cooling of the labor market and moderate wage pressure. And they affirm that the rise in treasury revenues, the high costs of borrowing, and a stronger dollar can combine financial conditions, forcing the federal reserve hand later in the year: “So we take the opinion that the Federal Reserve may need to pay more difficult and reduce prices a little further For the markets currently priced, but this is the second half of the development 2025. “
In reducing the public budget (quantitative tightening, or QT), Ji believes that the Federal Reserve may end from QT in 2025 if excess liquidity decreases to lower levels than what the central bank sees comfortably. The bank connects $ 3 trillion of reserves as a critical argument: “We are currently at 3.5 trillion US dollars. So we are comfortable. At the same time, the reversal of the reverse ribo works at $ 125 billion, and if that will reach zero, we will become a degree of distress. This is. Close, QT works at $ 60 billion in a month.
Regarding the currency markets, Ji notes that the dollar can retain its strength if the Federal Reserve remains cautious about mitigating: “It is certain that the FOMC meeting in December added support to the bull dollar … It is difficult to see the risk of FOMC event in January. The second … the Federal Reserve is ready to decline against these markets.
With President Donald Trump’s second term, questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Historically, President Jerome Powell corrected the political influence proposals: at the upcoming FOMC meeting, Powell is expected to avoid questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve Bank and Trump’s potential impact.
The president, however, was clear about his views on interest rates. When asked if he expected the Federal Reserve to listen to its demands for price discounts, Trump replied, “I will make a strong statement.” After asking whether he expected the Fed Bank to listen, he replied, “Yes.”
At the time of the press, the total ceiling of the encryption market reached 3.45 trillion dollars.
Distinctive photo of Shutterstock, Chart from TradingView.com
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