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A key technical development on the Dogecoin (DOGE/USD) chart could indicate an upward move if current support levels hold, according to cryptocurrency market analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA). After spending nearly a month in a downward sloping pattern, the DOGE appears to be bouncing off the previous resistance line of this channel – an event that often attracts attention among traders looking for a rally.
Dogecoin price ready to rise?
On Sunday (January 19), Kevin male That Dogecoin had been “trading in a bearish channel for over a month” and was “currently testing” the upper boundary of the channel. He stressed that it is important for DOGE to “hold this and bounce,” noting that failure to do so could lead to a “reassessment” of the chart.
So far, it seems that the cryptocurrency has been able to defend its new support. DOGE briefly fell to around $0.345 before closing two deep four-hour candles above the trend line. Kevin noted this “good bounce off the retest” and its alignment with the key four-hour moving averages, indicating a possible price rally.
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At the time of writing, Dogecoin lies around the $0.38-$0.39 level, showing resilience at previous resistance turned support. Kevin noted: “Dogecoin is making a nice bounce from a retest of the bearish channel I was tracking along with the major 4-hour moving averages. Very nice.”
Despite Dogecoin’s promising technical setup, Kevin emphasized that altcoins remain highly dependent on Bitcoin’s trend and market dominance. He pointed to the ongoing crypto cycle, stressing that “we have never been in an offseason” so far in this uptrend. According to Kevin, altcoins “will not permanently overtake the king” unless BTC dominance drops below the 54.51% threshold and USDT dominance drops below 3.7%.
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He also noted that Bitcoin dominance is close to 59%, which “effectively attacks the overall gold pocket” and potentially threatens the performance of altcoins. If BTC restores its advance above these critical dominance levels, Kevin believes the short-term outlook for most altcoins — including Dogecoin — may remain constrained, even if their individual charts look constructive.
Another factor adding turmoil to the cryptocurrency market is the recent launch of the memecoin by incoming US President Donald Trump. Kevin lamented that the cryptocurrency market, in his view, was the “healthiest” it has been in four years – highlighting how high-quality coins are gaining traction and how investors seem to be “fleeing to quality left and right.”
However, he claims that “within just 36 hours,” those close to Trump launched a meme coin that derailed this dynamic, sparking renewed speculation about the meme coin and dragging several powerful projects down by double-digit percentages. Although he describes this madness as a “temporary aberration,” Kevin believes the situation will eventually stabilize: “It may take a few weeks, but I still think we are in a very good position.”
For Dogecoin, the immediate signal to watch is whether it can continue to hold above the retested channel line. A decisive bounce above the $0.40 to $0.41 area could strengthen the bullish case, especially if broader market conditions remain supportive. On the other hand, any increase in Bitcoin dominance – and the potential return of the growing meme-mania – could create new headwinds.
At press time, DOGE was trading at $0.38.
Featured image created with DALLE, chart from TradingView.com
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