By Garrett Renshaw
(Reuters) – The Democratic Party has changed dramatically in the five weeks since U.S. President Joe Biden abandoned his failed re-election bid, and this week the change will be all too clear.
Vice President Kamala Harris, now the party’s nominee, heads to the Democratic National Convention riding a historic whirlwind: Her campaign has shattered fundraising records, packed arenas with supporters, and shifted polls in some swing states toward Democrats.
Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, have turned “joy” into a campaign buzzword, a stark reminder of the despair the party felt just weeks ago. The two publicly accepted their party’s nomination at the convention that began in Chicago on Monday.
“This has been a historic shift,” said Joseph Foster, a 71-year-old former Democratic Party chairman who is still active in the party. “People are excited, young people are engaged. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
With less than 80 days to go until Election Day, the party is hoping to ride this wave of enthusiasm to victory.
That would make Harris, the first black person of Asian descent to serve as vice president, the country’s first female president.
But pollsters and strategists from both major parties warn that the “euphoria” generated by Harris’ initial surge in popularity will fade, leaving Democrats with growing divisions over issues such as the economy and the war between Israel and Hamas alongside a fierce battle against Republican nominee Donald Trump.
Republican pollster Adam Geller predicted that Harris’s historical story would be “beautiful and fascinating, but it’s the issues that will ultimately decide the outcome of this election. And those issues include inflation, security, leadership and the global stage.”
Harris gave her first major speech focused on the economy on Friday and laid out proposals to cut taxes for most Americans, ban “price gouging” by grocery stores and boost affordable housing, an early signal to the party’s progressive wing.
She will face growing public pressure to offer more policy details in the coming weeks, and her aides have indicated that she is unlikely to offer much detail in some areas, such as energy, to avoid alienating the moderate and progressive wings of her party.
Harris may also have to overcome intraparty divisions over U.S. support for Israel’s war against Hamas and familiar divisions between progressives and moderates on a range of policy issues such as energy, health care and immigration.
About 200 social justice organizations plan to march at the Democratic National Convention on Monday to protest the Biden administration’s continued support for Israel in a war that has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza.
New map for victory
Harris, who will address the convention on Thursday, enters the week of celebrations buoyed by a series of polls showing she has already redrawn an electoral map that strongly favored Trump in the final weeks of Biden’s candidacy.
Harris is leading or tied with Trump in six of the seven swing states expected to decide the election on Nov. 5, according to the latest report released Wednesday by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The Lancet shifted its ratings for the swing states of Arizona, Georgia and Nevada toward Harris after turning the three states “lean Republican” in early July when Biden was still the Democratic nominee.
“I think what we have is a reset race where the Democratic nominee has now revitalized, or at least reshaped, the Biden 2020 coalition, not completely, but more cohesive than it was when Biden was at the top of the ticket,” Cook editor Amy Walter said in a phone call detailing the poll results.
Biden won the White House in 2020 with strong support from black, Latino and young American voters, but their enthusiasm for him this time around was sharply lower.
He eventually stepped down on July 21, under pressure from longtime allies and top Democratic leaders amid growing concerns about his mental strength and chances of defeating Trump.
Biden endorsed Harris and she quickly won the party’s support. The change quickly reshaped the race, giving Democrats a boost and forcing the Trump campaign to look for a new battle plan.
A Monmouth University poll released Wednesday showed a big jump in enthusiasm among registered Democratic voters and a big jump among independents.
In June, just 46% of registered Democrats said they were enthusiastic about a rerun between Biden and Trump — a figure that jumped to 85% in the latest Monmouth poll earlier this month.
Enthusiasm among independents rose from 34% in June to 53% in the latest poll.
However, Walter said concerns about immigration and the economy are helping Trump this time around after he lost his re-election bid to Biden in 2020.
“It’s just an opportunity,” she said of the Harris-Trump race.
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