Seeing Bitcoin prices rise as Donald Trump takes the lead in the world’s largest prediction market, PolymarketIt made me do some research on what Polymarket is and who uses it.
Now I have to say – I think Polymarket is leaning toward Trump. We need to take this bias into account, and here’s why.
Let’s look at some data. Polymarket shows that Trump is heading towards… Huge progress of 28% On Harris. latest prediction market, everythingIt also shows Trump leading by 18%. Meanwhile, most others Opinion polls You have a tight race. This huge deviation doesn’t make any sense — unless Polymarket’s user base is disproportionately pro-Trump.
Only in: 🇺🇸 Pro-#Bitcoin Donald Trump holds largest election lead so far, up 28.8%: PollyMarket pic.twitter.com/0m1FOG2pNL
– Bitcoin Magazine (@BitcoinMagazine) October 22, 2024
Which is what it is. Polymarket only allows betting on cryptocurrencies and bans users in the United States. This filters its audience towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrency enthusiasts abroad or cryptocurrency users in the US who use VPNs, and studies show that cryptocurrency users tend to be conservative.
And while Trump pledges to implement cryptocurrency-friendly policies, he doesn’t think much about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency users.
Some add that Trump’s bets fall within the framework of a “coordinated effort to change the perception of this race.”
This may also be the case, but it should be clear that Polymarket’s polls are biased.
Does this make Polymarket corrupt? i don’t think so. It provides insightful predictive data, and is a free marketplace platform where anyone can place a bid if they think otherwise. Which makes it one of the best tools to know market sentiment.
But anything that shows a massive lead for Trump or Harris at this point in the election should warrant skepticism. Traders can recognize and exploit this bias. I would be looking to buy Harris, anticipating the race to heat up as Election Day approaches. Polymarket odds should become closer to even odds.
In short, Polymarket caters to the Trump-friendly Bitcoin and cryptocurrency crowd, which significantly distorts its election odds compared to other polls. Knowing this, some people can benefit accordingly.
This article is a takes. The opinions expressed are entirely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.
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