This article is also available in Spanish.
In a bold series of posts on X on January 14, prominent cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher made a dire prediction regarding the long-standing and long-discussed altcoin season phenomenon. His comment quickly caught the attention of crypto analysts, especially since he seemed to challenge, rather than reinforce, long-held hopes for a 2021-style altcoin mania.
RIP Altcoin Crypto Season?
He started his German mail By acknowledging the renewed conversations within cryptocurrency circles about whether an “alternate season” might once again emerge. He distinguished between two different interpretations of the term altcoin season. “Will there be an ‘alternate season’ again? I’ve seen a lot of discussion about this on TL,” Deutscher noted. “First, it depends on your definition of an ‘alternate season.’ If you are referring to the indicator, then yes, I expect it to rise again sometime this year.
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However, he warned that a repeat of the euphoric multi-month boom in 2021 would be highly unlikely: “If you are referring to a bull mania that lasted only several months in 2021, no. The unique combination of QE/stimulus and repricing V-shaped arrows create conditions that are almost impossible to replicate and predicting that is a recipe for disaster.
Deutscher’s overall advice emphasized flexibility and preparedness rather than relying on extended upward waves. He called for profit taking in what he expects to be relatively short-term trades in altcoins – though he acknowledged the possibility of a spike: “If a bigger ‘alt season’ happens, that’s great. It makes our job much easier, and complacency will not be penalized.” Equally, follow the mindset of rotating into alternative options that are short-term (this will force you to take profits. It may not actually be short-term, but at least you are securing profits).
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He stressed that prudent strategies should take into account “multiple mini-cycles or pockets of narrative outperformance,” stressing the importance of not hoping for a second coming of market conditions in 2021. Ultimately, Deutscher’s advice focused on portfolio construction and proactive trading: “Rather Than holding anything and everything, owning a more concentrated basket of high-conviction assets Contrast those holdings with the desire to trade in profitable playing fields (i.e. AI) – but deal with it As a trade, don’t hold it.
Deutscher’s comments came in response to a statement by cryptocurrency influencer Ansem, who asserted: “There is never an alternative again. There are always pockets of extreme outperformance, where people move down the risk curve in terms of leagues but never to the level they were at.” Before. What is the real reason why BTC.d has not had to go up and to the right for a decade in a row?
While both analysts believe a 2021-style altcoin season seems highly unlikely, they highlight the opportunities that still exist in this uptrend. “Specific assets/sectors will see wild runs when conditions allow. Rather than holding each and everything, own a more concentrated basket of high-conviction assets,” Deutscher concludes.
At press time, the total market cap of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL2) was $1.34 trillion.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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