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Bitcoin Realized Cap Sets New Record, Market Cap Next?

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On-chain data shows that Bitcoin’s realized cap hit a new all-time high (ATH) recently as the market witnessed sharp capital outflows.

The maximum value of Bitcoin has set a new record

According to data from the on-chain analytics company Vitreous nodecapital inflows into Bitcoin have accelerated recently based on the trend in the cryptocurrency’s realized cap.

The “realized cap” here refers to the on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates the total value of the asset by assuming that the “true” value of each coin in circulation is the price it was last transacted on the network. This previous move of any currency is likely to be the last point at which it was traded, so the price at the time can be considered the current cost basis. As such, the maximum realized is the sum of the cost basis of all coins in circulation.

Therefore, one way to look at the model is to measure the total amount of capital investors have invested in cryptocurrency. In contrast, the usual market cap, which calculates the total value of Bitcoin supply at the current spot price, represents the value that Bitcoin holders now hold.

Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the trend in Bitcoin’s realized cap and its 30-day change over the past few years:

The value of the metric appears to have been heading up in recent months | Source: Glassnode on X

From the chart, it appears that Bitcoin’s realized cap has observed almost entirely positive growth since early 2023 as the net change in the metric over 30 days has remained in the green.

The index’s increase was slow for most of last year, but began to pick up pace once 2024 approached. In the first quarter of this year, the measure set a new record as its 30-day change reached positive levels, surpassing the highs of 2021.

Since the realized cap represents the amount invested by investors as a whole, the 30-day change in its value reflects capital flows moving in or out of the asset. It appears from the chart that BTC’s ATH earlier in the year coincided with the peak of inflows into the coin.

During the process of asset consolidation that followed the rally, demand became weak, and the realized cap slowed. The trend has finally turned around again recently, as the 30-day net change in the measure has risen again.

During the past month, the index grew by about $21.8 billion, which brought it to a new record level of more than $646 billion. This indicates that “liquidity across the asset class is rising, and significant capital inflows are supporting price increases,” Glassnode noted.

Bitcoin price

Despite sharp capital inflows, Bitcoin’s rise has paused as the coin’s price is still trading around $68,000.

Bitcoin price chart

Looks like the price of the coin has been consolidating recently | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView

Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

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