EUR/USD trading points and analysis
- The German PMI is a cause for concern in the Eurozone.
- The European Central Bank is under pressure to reconsider its interest rate expectations.
- 1.10 Next up for the bears.
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Euro background
The euro’s recent struggles got worse this morning after Germany’s HCOB PMI data (see economic calendar below) missed out on all fronts as manufacturing contracted further while services (the main contributor to the country’s GDP) fell to 52 But it remains within the expansive region. Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, acting as a proxy for the region and with similar figures reflected in the French release, upcoming Eurozone data will likely echo this sentiment. Some of the important comments made in the report include (source: S&P Global):
- “New service business falls for the first time in six months.”
- “There is an increasing possibility that the economy will be in recession in the second half of the year.”
- “The Composite Index moved into contraction territory below 50 for the first time since January.”
- The pace of employment growth in the German private sector slowed sharply in July.
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Economic calendar for EUR/USD (GMT +02:00)
source: DailyFX Economic Calendar
The ECB’s next interest rate decision this week will need to consider this data and the rapid slowdown in economic data. Although I do not anticipate a change in current market rates (see table below) a 25 bits per second lift with approx 100% Certainty, subsequent guidance may then start down a dovish path that may expose the EUR further.
Foundational knowledge of the trade
Macro basics
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ECB interest rate prospects
Source: Refinitiv
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD daily chart
Chart created by Warren VenkitasI.G
EUR/USD daily price action shown above has maintained its downward trajectory now below 1.1096 / 1.1100 The region ahead of the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision. With more scope for a pessimistic ECB repricing relative to the Fed, the pair may extend its downside towards 1.1000 Psychological support handle.
resistance levels:
Support levels:
IG client sense data: smitten
The IGCS shows that retailers are currently on board short On EUR/USD, with 65% of traders who hold short positions (as of this writing). At DailyFX, we usually take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, but due to the recent changes in long and short positions, we are reaching a short-term bearish bias.
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