As Bitcoin makes six-figure territory seem normal and higher prices seem inevitable, analyzing key on-chain data provides valuable insights into the fundamental health of the market. By understanding these metrics, investors can better anticipate price movements and prepare for potential market peaks or even any upcoming bounces.
Final price
the Final price Metric, which includes The days of currency were ruined (CDD) Taking into account the supply of Bitcoin, it has historically been a reliable indicator for predicting peaks in the Bitcoin cycle. Coin Destruction Days measures the transfer speed of coins, taking into account the holding period and the amount of Bitcoin transferred.
Currently, the final price is over $185,000 and will likely rise towards $200,000 as the cycle progresses. With Bitcoin already breaking the $100,000 level, this suggests that we may still have several months of positive price action ahead.
Multiple girls
Multiple Puell It evaluates miners’ daily revenues (in USD) compared to their 365-day moving average. After the halving event, miners saw a sharp decline in revenue, creating a period of consolidation.
Now, the Puell multiplier has risen back above 1, signaling a return to profitability for miners. Historically, crossing this threshold has signaled the later stages of a bull cycle, often characterized by massive price spikes. A similar pattern was observed during all previous bull runs.
MVRV Z-score
the MVRV Z-score It measures market value relative to realized value (average cost basis for Bitcoin holders). It was standardized into a Z-Score to account for the volatility of the asset, and was highly accurate in identifying the peaks and troughs of the cycle.
Currently, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score is still below the overheated red zone with a value of around 3.00, indicating that there is still room for growth. While decreasing highs have been a trend in recent sessions, the Z-Score indicates that the market is far from reaching an exhilarating high.
Active title feeling
Tracks this metric 28-day percentage change in active network addresses Along with the price changes during the same period. When price growth exceeds network activity, this indicates that the market may be overbought in the short term, as positive price movement may not be sustainable given network usage.
Recent data shows a slight calm after Bitcoin’s rapid rise from $50,000 to $100,000, indicating a healthy consolidation period. This pause likely paves the way for long-term sustainable growth and does not indicate that we should be bearish in the medium to long term.
Percentage of profit from consumed output
the Expendable Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) It measures profits made from Bitcoin transactions. Recent data shows an uptick in profit taking, which may indicate that we are entering the final stages of the cycle.
One caveat to consider is the increasing use of Bitcoin ETFs and derivative products. Investors may shift from self-deposit to ETFs for ease of use and tax advantages, which may impact SOPR values.
Days of value destroyed
Multiple value destroyed days (VDD). Expands on CDD by weighting larger, longer-term shareholders. When this metric enters the overheating red zone, it often signals significant peaks in prices as the largest and most experienced market participants begin cashing out.
While Bitcoin’s current VDD levels indicate a slightly overheated market, history suggests that it could maintain this range for several months before peaking. For example, in 2017, VDD indicated overbought conditions about a year before the top of the cycle.
conclusion
Together, these metrics indicate that Bitcoin is entering the final stages of its bull market. While some indicators point to a short-term cooling or slight over-expansion, most highlight significant upside remaining throughout 2025. Key resistance levels for this cycle could appear between $150K and $200K, with metrics like SOPR providing The VDD signals are clearer as we approach the peak.
For a more in-depth look at this topic, watch a recent YouTube video here: What’s happening on-chain: Bitcoin update
Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Comments are closed, but trackbacks and pingbacks are open.