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Bitcoin’s price decline from a new all-time high of $108,353 on Tuesday to around $96,000 (a -11.5% decline) has sparked intense speculation about whether the current bull cycle is approaching its peak. To address the growing uncertainty, Rafael Schulz-Kraft, co-founder of on-chain analytics provider Glassnode, Released Topic on X detailing the 18 scales and patterns on the series. “Where is the Bitcoin peak?” Schultz-Kraft asked before offering his detailed analysis.
Has Bitcoin reached its highest levels?
1/ MVRV Ratio: A long-term measure of unrealized profitability, the MVRV ratio compares market value to realized value. Historically, readings higher than 7 indicate overheated conditions. “Right now it’s hovering around 3 — room for growth,” Schultz-Kraft noted. This suggests that, in terms of total unrealized gains, the market has not yet reached levels that previously coincided with macroeconomic peaks.
2/ MVRV pricing ranges: These ranges are derived from the number of days the MVRV spent at maximum levels. The upper band (3.2) has been exceeded for only about 6% of trading days historically. Today, that range-topping price is $127,000. Considering that the price of Bitcoin is around $98,000, the market has not yet reached the area that has historically been characterized by the highest formations.
3/ Long-Term Profitability of Long-Term Shareholders (Relative Unrealized Profit and LTH-NUPL): Long-term holders (LTHs) are more stable market participants. The net unrealized gain/loss (NUPL) measure currently stands at 0.75, entering what Schultz-Kraft calls the “euphoria zone.” He noted that in the 2021 cycle, Bitcoin ran about 3 more times after reaching similar levels (although he clarified that he does not necessarily expect a repeat). Upper historical formations often saw LTH-NUPL readings above 0.9. Thus, while the scale is high, it has not yet reached the maximum of the previous cycle.
Notably, Schultz-Kraft admitted that his observations may be conservative because the 2021 cycle peaked at somewhat lower PE values than previous cycles. “I was expecting these profitability metrics to be a little higher,” he explained. This may indicate decreasing peaks over successive cycles. Investors should be aware that historical volatility may become less pronounced over time.
4/ Annual profit/loss ratio: This measure measures the total profits achieved compared to the losses achieved during the past year. Previous cycle highs saw values above 700%. It currently stands at around 580%, and still shows “room to grow” before reaching levels historically associated with market highs.
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5/ Market Cap to Thermocap Ratio: An early on-chain metric, it compares Bitcoin’s total market cap with its cumulative mining cost (Thermocap). In previous bull periods, the maximums of the ratio were in line with the market tops. Schultz-Kraft advises caution regarding specific target ranges but notes that current levels are nowhere near previous extremes. The market remains below historical heat multiples that have indicated overheated conditions in the past.
6/ Thermocap multiples (32-64x): Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed approximately 32-64x Thermocap. “We’re at the bottom of that range,” Schultz-Kraft said. Reaching the upper range in today’s environment means that Bitcoin’s market cap is just over $4 trillion. Given that the current market cap ($1.924 trillion) is much lower, this indicates the potential for significant upside if historical patterns continue.
7/ Investor Tool (2-Year SMA x5): The Investor Tool applies a 2-year simple moving average (SMA) to the price and a 5x multiple of the SMA to indicate potential upper areas. “Right now that means $230,000,” Schultz-Kraft noted. Since the current Bitcoin price is well below this level, the indicator has not yet issued an unambiguous upper signal.
8/Bitcoin Price Temperature (BPT6): This model uses deviations from the 4-year moving average to capture cyclical price extremes. Historically, BPT6 has been reached in previous bull markets, and this range now stands at $151,000. With Bitcoin price reaching $98,000, the market still lacks levels previously associated with peak overheating.
9/ Real Market Average and AVIV: Real Market Average is an alternative model to the cost basis. The MVRV equivalent, known as AVIV, measures how much the market deviates from this average. Historically, peaks have had more than 3 standard deviations. Today equates to “values above approximately 2.3,” while the current reading is 1.7. “There is room for growth,” Schultz-Kraft said, implicitly suggesting that by this measure, the market had not yet reached its historical highs.
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10/ Max/Middle/Upper Cap Models (Delta Cap Derivatives): These models, based on the Delta Cap metric, showed historically decreasing values during the 2021 cycle, never reaching the “upper limit.” Schultz-Kraft urges caution in interpreting these matters due to evolving market structures. Currently, the average cap level is around $4 trillion, nearly double current levels. If the market follows previous patterns, this would allow for significant growth before it reaches levels characteristic of previous peaks.
11/Value Destroyed Days Multiple (VDDM): This metric measures the spending behavior of old coins compared to the annual average. Historically, outliers greater than 2.9 have indicated that legacy coins were beating the market hard, often during the latter stages of bull markets. Currently, it is 2.2, and has not yet reached maximum levels. “There is room for growth,” Schultz-Kraft noted, noting that not all long-term holders have fully given up on taking profits.
12/ Mayer Multiplier: The Mayer Multiplier compares the price to the 200-day simple moving average. Overbought conditions in previous sessions correspond to values above 2.4. Currently, a Mayer multiple above 2.4 would correspond to a price of around $167,000. With the price of Bitcoin falling below $100,000, this threshold remains far away.
13/ Extreme Cycle Oscillator Chart: This composite uses multiple binary indicators (MVRV, aSOPR, Puell Multiple, Reserve Risk) to indicate cycle extremes. “Currently 2/4 running,” meaning only half of the conditions tracked for the overheated market are met. The previous peaks are consistent with a full range of triggering signals. As such, the chart indicates that the cycle has not yet reached its full peak.
14/ Pi Cycle Top Indicator: A price-based signal that has historically identified cycle tops by comparing short-term and long-term moving averages. “Right now, the short moving average is well below the larger one ($74,000 vs. $129,000),” Schultz-Kraft said, “suggesting there is no crossover and thus no classic higher signal.”
15/Sell-side risk ratio (LTH version): This ratio compares the total realized profits and losses with the realized market value. High values are associated with volatile and late bull markets. “The interesting area is 0.8% and above, whereas we are currently at 0.46% – which is room for growth,” Schultz-Kraft explained. This means that despite recent profit-taking, the market has not yet entered the zone of intense selling pressure often seen near tops.
16/ LTH Inflation Rate: Schultze-Kraft highlighted the inflation rate for long-term holders as “the most bearish chart I have come across to date.” While he did not provide specific target values or thresholds in this excerpt, he did mention that it “screams caution.” Investors should monitor this closely as it may indicate increased distribution from long-term holders or other structural headwinds.
17/STH-SOPR (Output Profits Spent by Short-Run Stockholders): This measure measures the profit-taking behavior of short-run stockholders. “The rate is currently high, but it is not sustainable,” Schultz-Kraft noted. In other words, while short-term participants are taking profits, the data is not yet showing the kind of sustained, aggressive profit-taking typical of a market top.
18/ SLRV Bars: These bars follow trends in realized value over the short and long term. Historically, when both moving averages trend upward and cross, it signals a turning point in the market. “Both moving averages are still trending higher, only turning bearish at round tops and crossovers. “There is no sign of a top at this time,” Schultz-Kraft stated.
In general, Schultz-Kraft emphasized that these measures should not be used in isolation. “Never rely on individual data points, convergence is your friend,” he advised. He acknowledged that this list is not exhaustive and that Bitcoin’s evolving ecosystem — now with ETFs, regulatory clarity, institutional accreditation, and geopolitical factors — may make historical comparisons less reliable. “This cycle may look vastly different, but the (historical) data is all we have,” he concluded.
While many metrics show the Bitcoin market moving toward more euphoric and profitable territory, few have reached the historic limits that marked the peaks of the previous cycle. Indicators such as MVRV, profitability ratios, thermal metrics, and many price-based models generally suggest “room for growth,” although at least one – the LTH inflation rate – raises a note of caution. Some vehicles are only partially activated, while classic top signals such as the Pi Cycle Top remain inactive.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $96,037.
Featured image created with DALL.E, a chart from TradingView.com
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