US:
- The Fed left interest rates unchanged as expected at the last meeting.
- The macroeconomic projections were revised higher,
and the Dot Plot showed that the FOMC still expects another rate hike by the
end of the year with less rate cuts projected in 2024. - Fed Chair Powell reaffirmed their data dependency but added that
they will proceed carefully. - The US CPI last week beat expectations on the
headline figures, but the core measures came in line with forecasts and the
market’s pricing barely changed. - The labour market remains fairly solid as seen once again last week
with the beat in Jobless Claims, although continuing claims surprisingly missed. - The US PMIs
recently showed that the US economy remains pretty resilient. - The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report last Friday missed across the
board with the inflation expectations figures spiking back up. - The Fed members continue to cite elevated long-term
yields as a reason to proceed carefully and will likely pause in November as
well. - The market doesn’t expect the Fed to hike anymore.
New Zealand:
- The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
unchanged while
stating that demand growth continues to ease and it’s expected to decline
further with monetary conditions remaining restrictive. - Today, the New Zealand inflation data missed expectations supporting the
RBNZ’s stance. - The employment data surprised to the upside
recently. - The wage growth has also missed
expectations and it’s something that the central banks are watching closely. - The recent New Zealand Retail Sales beat expectations although the data
remains deeply negative. - The Manufacturing PMI continues to slide further into
contraction, but the Services PMI jumped back into expansion. - The RBNZ is expected to keep the
cash rate steady at the next meeting as well.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe
NZDUSD Daily
On the daily chart, we can see that the NZDUSD pair
is still stuck in the range between the 0.5860 support and the
0.6000 resistance. Today, the pair dropped following the miss in the New
Zealand inflation data and we can expect the bearish momentum to take the pair
into the support level where the buyers will likely step in with a defined risk
below the level to target another rally into the 0.60 resistance.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the sellers
piled in around the previous swing level at 0.5925 with the red 21 moving average acting
as dynamic resistance. There’s no clear level to lean on at the moment, but the
sellers are likely to keep the momentum going into the 0.5960 support targeting
a break into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking above the 0.5925 resistance to position for another rally into
the 0.60 level.
NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe
NZDUSD 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can see more
closely the minor resistance around the 0.5925 level and the support zone at
0.5860. These are the only levels to watch at the moment until we get some more
clarity in the next days with the release of new economic data.
Upcoming Events
Today we will get the US Retail Sales data and it
will be interesting to see if consumer spending has weakened or it’s still
holding on. On Thursday, we will get the US Jobless Claims report and we will
also hear from Fed Chair Powell with the market focused on any hint about the
near term policy outlook.
