Polymarket, the predictions market on Polygon, is attracting global attention. Not only is it among the most active dApps without its own token, but it is also being closely monitored by pollsters tracking the ongoing presidential campaign in the United States.
In the heated election campaign, current Vice President Kamala Harris is battling with Donald Trump. The former president lost to Joe Biden in 2020 but now wants to take office.
Is Polymarket misleading gamblers?
looking at PolymarketTrump has expanded his lead over the past few days. Gamblers estimate the probability of Donald Trump winning at 61%, compared to 39% for Harris.
Interestingly, the market for the winner of the 2024 presidential election has a total size of more than $2 billion. As big as this may seem, says one analyst He believes Polymarket misleads people and does not want to reveal the real open interest.
Open interest is the total number of outstanding contracts on Polymarket’s several markets. This measure is used as a measure to measure liquidity and interest.
According to an analyst estimate, open interest is around $200 million, up from around $100 million in the last 30 days. Cycling to DeFiLlamathe total value of the locked portal (TVL) is only $211 million – and this is what the dapps manage, including all other active markets.
This number is well below the $2 billion in volume posted by the winner of the 2024 presidential election as of October 18. At more than $211 million, Polymarket TVL is near its all-time high, up from less than $50 million in April. Despite this rapid growth, the expected market liquidity is not as deep as expected.
Questions arise regarding transparency
The analyst who pointed out this discrepancy attacks Polymarket developers for high volume rather than open interest, saying this is unethical. This highlights the possibility of a decreased focus on transparency which could ultimately make it difficult for users to accurately manage risks when betting on Polymarket.
Americans will go to the polls on November 4 and choose their next president after Joe Biden steps down. After that, the largest Polymarket running on Polygon will be closed, and rewards will be distributed depending on the winner.
So far, the “markitzero” gambler who is backing Harris to win owns more than 4.5 million shares and is in the red. Meanwhile, A Trump supporter“Fredi9999” controls over 20.2 shares on the market and is currently in the money.
Featured image from Flickr, chart from TradingView
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