Is Alphabet’s Google Still in the Driving Seat in the AI Arms Race?
This is a question that has been plaguing experts and investors since ChatGPT, the chatbot developed by OpenAI, a “limited dividend” company whose largest shareholder is Microsoft, took the world by storm last November.
This next-generation chatbot responds to even the most complex requests with human-like responses. It has changed the way search is perceived on the Internet – Google’s core business. The chatbot showed that artificial intelligence has reached a point where technology can perform certain tasks much better than humans.
Microsoft (MSFT) – Get a free reportIt immediately integrated ChatGPT’s features into its Bing search engine. The Redmond, WA group has also deployed these features across nearly all of its products and in its cloud business.
Open source is the real competition
In the face of this push, Google (Google) – Get a free reportRecently launched Bard, a competitor to ChatGPT. But despite the move, there are still doubts about Google’s leadership in a sector where the internet giant was one of the pioneers. These doubts are also expressed within the group which is based in Mountain View, California.
Luke Sernau, the group’s architect, shared some of those doubts in a letter that has been circulating internally since April, and was posted by semianalysis.com.
Sernau laments that Google is primarily focused on its competition with OpenAI. This rivalry is negative, it seems, because it blinds the internet giant, allowing a more dangerous opponent to slip under the radar. This silent opponent is the open source community. This community includes many researchers who do not work in technology groups. Sernau says they are making discoveries and advances in AI faster than Google and OpenAI.
“We’ve done a lot of research over our shoulders at OpenAI,” Cernau writes. “Who will cross the next stage? What will be the next step?” But the uncomfortable truth is that we are not in a position to win this arms race and neither is OpenAI. While we were squabbling, a third faction was quietly eating our lunch.
“I’m of course talking about open source. And, frankly, they’re fooling us. The things we consider ‘major open problems’ have been solved and are in people’s hands today,” he said.
He explained that the open source communities are running base models on the Pixel 6 phone at record speed. They can hone a custom AI on your laptop in the evening and complete websites full of art forms with no restrictions whatsoever; And the script is not far behind.
He concludes that Google’s biggest competitor is not OpenAI but the open source communities because they develop models and tools for AI that are cheaper, faster, easily adaptable and customizable for each customer, compared to the tech giants’ models and more specifically to those of Google.
losing bid
“While our models still have a slight edge in quality, the gap is narrowing incredibly quickly. Open source models are faster, more customizable, more private, and pound for pound,” Cernau argued. “We don’t have a secret sauce. Our best hope is to learn from and collaborate with what others outside of Google are doing.”
Then he warned his company about today’s mistakes which, according to him, will have great commercial consequences in the future.
“People are not going to pay for a restricted model when free, unrestricted alternatives are comparable in quality. We have to think about where it really adds value,” Cernau recommended. “Giant models slow us down. In the long run, the best models are the ones that can be replicated quickly.”
“We have to make small variables more than an afterthought.”
What caused Sernau to worry was the leak to the public of a small AI prototype developed by Meta Platforms, LLaMA, in March, and its aftermath.
“A massive outpouring of innovation ensued, with only days passing between major developments,” the Googler wrote. “More importantly, they solved the scaling problem to the extent that anyone could modify it. Many new ideas are from regular people. The barrier to entry to training and experimentation has dropped from the gross output of a major research institution to one person, an evening, and a fat laptop.”
He concludes by emphasizing that the continued focus on OpenAI may cause Google’s demise, as the real danger lies with the open source communities. OpenAI and Google are similar because they both have a closed policy.
“Competing directly with open source is a losing proposition,” Cernau said. “This latest advance (the ingenuity of the open source community) has direct and immediate implications for our business strategy. Who would pay for a Google product with usage restrictions if there was a free, high-quality alternative without them?”
He said that Google should not expect to be able to catch up.
“The modern internet runs on open source for a reason. Open source has some important advantages that we just can’t replicate.”
Google did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
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