Donald Trump has firmly returned to the presidency of the United States, with the possibility of obtaining a majority in the Senate or House of Representatives. This would enable him to reverse any aspect of Biden’s inflation-reduction law that might be unpopular with the fossil fuel lobbyists who supported his election.
However, it is too late for Trump to influence the speed and extent of the energy transition around the world, much of which has already achieved irreversible momentum.
During Trump’s four-year absence from the White House, the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables has largely moved from the world of politics and climate activists to become a major global economic activity with significant investments in the development of renewable energy technologies.
Trump will have to take into account the US lag in renewable energy investments, with expectations that he will weaponize tariffs to protect US jobs in both fossil fuels and emerging energy technologies.
It will also need to acknowledge that the US oil and gas industry has already expanded dramatically under the Joe Biden administration, primarily due to the effects of the Ukraine war that has redefined global oil and gas supply chains.
Over the past two years, the United States has increased oil and gas production and exports at the expense of Russia and the Middle East – and this trend continues.
When Trump returns to the White House, his first actions will likely include rescinding Biden’s decision to suspend LNG exports from the United States, which has proven unpopular with oil and gas lobbyists.
The first measures may include easing Biden’s restrictions on exploration, drilling and pipelines. Predictably, Trump will have no time, sympathy, or money to “waste” on the ongoing global clamor for climate finance in the developing world.
On the geopolitical front, Trump will likely re-establish political partnerships with powerful global leaders such as Russia, Israel, Hungary and Saudi Arabia, with whom he can forge a different world order, which may include solutions to the conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine.
China, the European Union, and developing countries will need to redefine how they deal with Trump’s return and empowerment. Specifically, Trump will find a more powerful President Xi Jinping who has gained greatly enhanced global influence and appeal.
Returning to energy and climate, a Trump return will give fossil fuel interests increased confidence to maintain their position in the ongoing competition in the energy transition.
However, it is investors, not politicians, who will influence the pace of achieving climate change goals. It is also increasingly clear that any political leadership is unlikely to take any climate action that would lead to job losses and increased energy and commodity prices.
The writer is an energy consultant
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