The dollar benefited from yesterday's US PMI data, along with a reversal in risk sentiment. US indices in particular ended with losses after starting the day brightly on the back of Nvidia's increased profits. This leaves us with an atmosphere of caution in the final period of the week.
For now, the major currencies are little changed, and US futures remain more hesitant. But the dollar may look to make further advances with EUR/USD testing the waters below its 100-day moving average at 1.0807 and USD/JPY back above 157.00.
Looking at European trading, UK retail sales are the main event on the economic calendar. There's always something about the often disappointing UK retail sales since last year. But today's April readings are already expected to show a monthly decline compared to March. This is further evidence of the impact of inflation on UK households.
As you can see above, the stark difference between the volume and value of retail sales remains. In fact, sales volumes are lower compared to the starting point of the ONS series in March 2019. This is a real decline and essentially indicates that UK consumers are paying more for less.
Today's data will be one to watch for its impact on the Bank of England's interest rate outlook, so that will keep the focus on the GBP.
0700 GMT – Final first quarter GDP numbers in Germany
0700 GMT – UK retail sales data for April
0745 GMT – Business confidence in France for May
That's it for the next session. I wish you all the best in the coming days and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.
