In this morning video on November 10, 2023, I kickstart the Forex trading day with a technical look at the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. What are the biases, the risks, the targets for those three major currency pairs? What is the longer term daily chart saying and what is the bias in the shorter term? It is all outlined in this video.
EURUSD: The EURUSD’s high this week was on Monday and at the time the price got within about 7-8 pips of the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2023 hi to the 2023 low reached in October. That retracement level comes in at 1.07637 and the high price for the week came in at 1.0756. The inability to get above the 38.2% retracement gay sellers ago had to push the downside. After falling on Tuesday, the price has been trading up and down since that time. The current price trades between its 200-hour moving average at 1.06605 and its 100-hour moving average at 1.06961. The current price is trading at 1.0688. Getting above the 100-hour moving average or below the 200 hour moving average would tilt the short-term bias in favor of the directional break.
USDJPY: The USDJPY got close to its 2022 high price at 151.938 at the beginning of the month. The high price reached 151.68. Sellers pushed the price down to a low of 149.18 last Friday, but in trading this week the price has trended to the upside with 5 consecutive days higher. The high price today reached 151.483. The current price is trading at 151.345. Going forward if the price were to break above the high for the year at 151.68 and then the high from 2022 at 151.938, the price would be trading at multi-decade highs. Keep that in mind. Drilling to the hourly chart, in trading yesterday the price moved up to the next target near 151.386 (swing highs from November 1). In the process, the price also moved above a swing high going back to the same day at 151.23. The low today moved down to around 151.21 before rotating back to the upside. If the traders are to give up on the upside, getting below 151.23 is the 1st step (with more work to do). On the topside it’s the high from earlier this month and the 2022 high as topside targets.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD last month tried to move below its 38.2% retracement of the move up from the September 2022 low at 1.20763. It was successful for a few days, but could not sustain momentum on 2 separate tests in the month. That led to a rise higher in November. On Monday, the high price for the stone versus the US dollar moved up to test its keyed 200-day moving average on the topside at 1.24342, but found willing sellers against that level. Since then the trend has been to the downside with the low price of today reaching 1.21995 (right around a nice round natural level at 1.2200). Drilling to the hourly chart, the price move below its 200 hour moving average currently at 1.2249. That moving average is also near the 50% midpoint of the move up from the October 26 low to the high price reached on Monday this week. Those and all technical levels will now be a key bias defining level for the GBPUSD pair going forward. Staying below is more bearish.
