US tariffs threaten to tip UK, Europe and Asia into recession, warn economists

A comprehensive escalation in the American commercial tariffs has sent shock waves through the global economy, as economists have warned that the United Kingdom, the European Union and a number of Asian economies could slip into recession this year.

President Trump raised the customs tariff on imports from 60 countries, and raised the average American tariff rate from 2.5 percent to 25.1 percent – the highest level in more than a century, according to the UBS Investment Bank. This unprecedented move prompted analysts to review global growth expectations significantly and increase inflation expectations.

Barclays said that the UK, which faces a 10 percent essential line on all exports to the United States, could see a percentage of 1.5 resulting from GDP in 2025. This would direct the economy to recession, which led to a recovery from fragile recovery already. The budget responsibility office has previously expected 1 percent growth this year.

While the UK avoided the most sharp tariff – such as 50 to 70 percent of the fees applied to China – is expected to burden the cumulative impact of targeted duties on cars and steel and disrupt the largest global supply chain largely on British exports and work confidence.

The European Union has been struck with additional definitions of 20 percent, which can estimate the Barclays estimates 1.9 percentage of GDP growth, while neighboring Asian economies such as Vietnam and Cambodia were arrested in cross -foam cross fire.

“The customs tariff remains in place for a long time,” many countries are likely to end in the recession. You can throw most of the predictions from the door. “

China, the largest individual goal, faces a total tariff for the United States of about 70 percent, as growth is expected to decrease by up to 1 percentage, according to Capital Economics. The market closely monitors how Beijing responds, as analysts expect new stimulus measures to soften the strike.

For the United States itself, the effects will be mixed. While the new tariffs are likely to raise inflation – as Oxford's economy predicts the basic inflation of approaching 4 percent this year – it is expected to also grow growth, which reduces 2 percent to only 1 percent of gross domestic product.

Nomura analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to make three discounts in interest rates during the next 12 months, a reflection of the previous expectations of non -discounts until mid -2016.

Definitions are usually transferred as border taxes, for consumers, increased prices and real income erosion. As inflation and trade sizes are shrinking, global supply chains are preparing for a long period of turmoil.

For companies in the United Kingdom, especially exporters in the manufacturing and cars sectors, the new trade environment is great risks. Economists warn that relying on American markets may now require urgent reassessment, as companies face dual pressures of low competitiveness and low demand.